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23/8/2002 edition

Spring Carnival
Horseracing Betting Tips

Before Too Long - no luck

At Moonee Valley last Saturday in the 3YO Fillies Listed Mitchell McKenzie Stakes over 1000 metres, this visitor from Sydney had no luck first up. She was attacked in the lead by Vegas Show. That gave all the favours to Innovation Girl, who had a nice trail, and won the race, defeating Before Too Long by a half head.


Rubitano - good odds too?

Wonder if those media experts would have been saying what amazing odds were bet about this 5YO gelding at Moonee Valley last Saturday if he had won the Listed 1000 metres sprint by three lengths just like Bel Esprit?

Rubitano had effortlessly won both races this campaign. He also had an outstanding win strike rate with nine wins from only 12 races, including the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington in March this year.

Like Bel Esprit, there were public doubts about Rubitano's ability to handle the rain affected track at Moonee Valley. That did not deter punters who took the "amazing" odds of $2.00.

They saw Rubitano, who started at odds on $1.90, go from sharing the lead rounding the home turn to finishing a well defeated last of nine. Forgive the run, but also don't be so forgiving that you take skinny odds about him next start.


De Gaulle Lane on way back

This 5YO gelding won the Queensland Derby by over four lengths in June 2001. Injury kept him off the racetrack since.

There was nothing wrong with De Gaulle Lane's first up run at Moonee Valley. In the same race as Rubitano, he finished seventh, beaten about four lengths.

Better over more distance, he should show significant improvement from the workout.


Don't dismiss Desert Sky

Another horse worth watching from the same race is this Matthew Ellerton trained 5YO gelding. He won two Group 1 Weight for Age races at Caulfied in January 2001.

He hasn't won another race since, but specked from $31.00 to $21.00 he did finish the closest of fourths in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington in March this year. He was beaten 0.3 lengths by Rubitano, with North Boy and Mistegic also just in front of him.

First up at Moonee Valley last Saturday he didn't appear to have much luck in the short home straight. He was only beaten a couple of lengths.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bel Esprit is back - soft win
Spring Carnival horses
Shogun Lodge betting tip
Melbourne Cup all in betting
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/8/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Banyan Bay 23.00 37.80 $1480
Grumans 31.70 36.90 $520
Key To My Dreams 13.30 16.70 $340
Jon Ledecky 10.60 13.00 $240


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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