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23/7/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, July 17.

Rosehill: Track Dead
R2 $50,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Chatelaine
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Mathew Cahill
Trainer: Peter G Moody
Winner: Lady In Paris
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $15.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.20
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: Paul Cave

Morphettville: Track Slow
R1 $20,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: About 3230 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Aucash For All
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Eric Musgrove
Winner: Super Cobra
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Brett Scott
Trainer: Eric Musgrove

R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap..
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Helter Skelter
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.50
 Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Liam Birchley
Winner: Star Peril
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Ken Sweeney

R4 $40,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3520 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Karasi
Result: first
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Brett Scott
Trainer: Eric Musgrove

This edition of Punt to Win:
Ten golden betting rules
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/7/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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