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22/11/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Sandown Classic Day, Saturday, 15th. November, held at the Sandown Hillside horse racing track.

Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $25,500 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1803 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jervois
Result: second
Starting price: $1.50
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Miss Nederlands
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Neil Walsh

R2 $25,500 Fillies & Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1353 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Zodiac Queen
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
Winner: Danedina
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1303 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Just Flipper
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Scott Bailey
Trainer: Brian Mueller
Winner: Maduro
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R4 $70,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Luna Spirit
Result: third
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
Winner: Arezzo
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Richard Jolly

Continued from previous page. Click here.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The worst horse racing bet of the century
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites
The Surprise Winner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Sandown Classic Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Cantala Stakes Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Melbourne Cup & Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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