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22/11/2008
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results on Flemington's one million dollars Cantala Stakes Day, Saturday, 8th. November.
Randwick: Track Good
R1 $70,000 3YO. Rst73. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Pinwheel
Result: second
Starting price: $1.40
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Zarock
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gary Portelli
R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bellagio Wynn
Result: third
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Fianchetto
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Craig Agnew
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Cheltenham: Track Dead
R1 $30,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1253 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Music World
Result: third
Starting price: $1.95
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Whisper Bay
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Kate Dyson
Trainer: David Hayes
R2 $30,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Chase The Music
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Be That As It May
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: David Hayes
R3 $30,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1403 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mr Gann
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
Winner: Jervois
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
R4 $25,500 Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 1803 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: By Sea
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Carole Gellard
Winner: Yarterberry
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Ben Hoppo
Trainer: Darryl Carrison
R8 $25,500 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bella Leah
Result: first
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Kate Dyson
Trainer: Paul Seater
This edition of Punt to Win:
The worst horse racing bet of the century
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites
The Surprise Winner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Sandown Classic Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Cantala Stakes Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Melbourne Cup & Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/11/2008
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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