22/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Stutter - exactly that

This John Hawkes trained four year old mare resumed from a five months' spell at Rosehill in a Fillies and Mares Open Handicap over 1200 metres.

In the 11 horse field Stutter had barrier eight and top weight of 57.5kg. She was showing tote odds of $2.10 on the jump. (Hawkes trained "good things" are invariably much worse value on the tote. $2.50 was available in the bookmaker betting ring.) Anyway, she settled midfield, was four wide throughout without cover, never got into the race, and finished eighth.

Nothing wrong was found with her after the race either, except a minor abrasion to the off hind leg which possibly happened at the barriers. Combine that minor inconvenience with racing four wide and it is pretty easy to see why she flopped.

Taking short odds about horses resuming from a spell is a losing move for punters. It is even worse when the the horse has an ordinary barrier and a hefty handicap.

Watch those jockeys and trainers

We wrote him up only the other week. Two kilos claiming apprentice Michael Squires might have rode a double at Rosehill last Saturday but have a look at these rides.

His win on London Eye was more good fortune. From the widest barrier of the field, 10, the horse burst to the lead. A class jockey would not immediately put on the brakes. Michael Squires did. The result was that the horse was immediately challenged.

In the seventh of the day, a 10 horse, 1500 metres restricted affair, Michael Squires and three kilos apprentice Ms. Kaylene Gillman absolutely murdered their horses, Papal and Komykyn Truda respectively. Komkyn Truda started at only $7.50. Even $200 would have been unders based on what happened.

We had the situation of them both fighting for the lead 12 lengths ahead of the field. They still led the rest of the field by 10 lengths at the home turn, when their mounts both stopped from exhaustion with Papal finishing eighth and Komykyn Truda last.

A stewards enquiry was opened. Both apprentices were given instructions to lead. Michael Squires realised the pace was too fast and endeavoured to ease Papal back, but lost control of the horse which continued to race fiercely, obviously fired up by the other horse. Papal's trainer, B. Lawson, also pointed out that the horse had fierce racing manners. So why was a two kilos claiming apprentice on the horse with instructions to lead?

Komykyn Truda's jockey, Ms. Kaylene Gillman said it took her to the first turn to realise she was not able to cross Papal to lead. She also admitted to being unaware of the pace of the race.

She was reprimanded by stewards for a ride that lacked the judgement necessary of a city apprentice. Komykyn Truda's trainer T. Kirsh was also reprimanded for failing to properly assess the likely tempo of the race and giving her instructions to lead that were too binding in all the circumstances.

Undisclosed form - upset results

Just another example, the first at Morphettville, a 1050 metres 2YO event restricted to runners with no metropolitan wins. In the 11 horse field there was:
Not one winner.
One unraced horse.
One horse resuming from a four months' spell after only one start.
Three horses who had their only race start in June.
Another six horses with a maximum of three starts each, who had all raced in June.

Basically, there was not much form, especially with two year olds who are inexperienced and can under perform for any number of reasons.

The race was won by Catlight, $10.90, who was the only horse resuming from a spell. The $2.50 favourite Verlaine was a comfortably beaten third.

Markets - how wrong can they be?

In the last race at Sandown, a Mares Open Handicap over 1400 metres the prices of Lungarno and Fellowship were way out of kilter. Consider just these points:

Lungarno had six wins and four placings from 17 starts.
Fellowship had only four wins and another 17 placings from 41 starts.

Lungarno convincingly won her last start at Caulfield by over three lengths. Fellowship, didn't win of course, but ran a good third at Sandown.

At Sandown, Fellowship and Lungarno both started at $6.00. Mind you Fellowship was showing a paltry $5.30 on SuperTab at the jump. Fellowship finished seventh, beaten by seven lengths. Lungarno ran a good race and finished second.

There is an excellent guideline which can help you avoid taking poor odds about horses and at times recognise high win strike rate horses as offering top value:

Horses with at least 10 runs and a good win strike rate will continue to have a good win strike rate.

Horses with at least 10 runs and a poor win strike rate will continue to have a poor win strike rate.
They are money munchers.

By the time horses have had 20 and 30 starts these trends are very much confirmed.

Next: Punt to Win 15/6/2001
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