22/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Royalsyn to back it

Smart three year old filly Royalsyn resumed from a five months' spell against the older horses in a pretty ordinary 1200 metres Class 6 event at Doomben last Saturday.

She had barrier seven in the eight horse field, not particularly ideal. Her tote price of $1.50 was ludicrous. Who wants to get a 67% win strike rate in order to just break even at the punt? That's what punters are doing taking those odds.

As it happened Royalsyn raced erratically and finished third. The New South Wales tote was "kind enough" to give you a dividend of $1.04 for the place, a win of four cents. The other totes gave you back your money only for a winning place bet.

If Royalsyn had finished say fourth and out of a place these TABs would have kept the punters' money. They are quite happy to let punters have a chance of losing their money but have no chance of winning anything. How moral is that?

Talking about those place dividends

In the seventh at Sandown, a nine horse affair, Yo Yo Ma was backed in on track from $2.50 to $2.10. The three year old gelding finished third.

The New South Wales tote paid a poor $1.04 while SuperTab gave winning place punters their money back. That is one of many reasons why backing horses for the place on the tote and naking money long term is very tough for punters.

1. You have no control over the odds you get.
2. You can lose with a bet but not win.
3. Rounding down of dividends is an absolute killer taking an exhorbitant percentage of your winnings.
$1.09 and you only get paid $1.00 money back.
$1.19 and you only get paid $1.10.
4. If you must back horses for the place then each way bets with bookmakers makes much more sense provided you get one quarter win odds based on traditional bookmakers' odds.

To work this out with decimal odds is easy:
Take away $1.00 from the odds then divide by four.
Example:
Odds are $5.00.
Subtract $1.00 gives you $4.00.
Divide by four gives you $1.00 which is what you win for every $1.00 place bet.
Plus of course you also get your original $1.00 bet back.
This makes a total place return of $2.00 for every $1.00.

Also use a bit of common sense. Surely one quarter win odds is a far better deal in an eight horse field for finishing in the first three than for finishing in the first three in an 18 horse field?

Really John Tapp?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. As a Sky Racing host John Tapp is brilliant. However, every so often he does come out with a blooper.

When Royalsyn was beaten John Tapp said:

"I guess punters who took the short odds would have been in the minority anyhow."

I never knew the tote set out to lose on a race. If a horse is $1.50 on the tote it means the majority, not minority of punters' money is on the horse.

Maybe he just meant there wouldn't be too many punters who actually backed it. But what about all the small and not so small punters who were using the horse as a standout in doubles, quinellas and trifectas?

Punters mistakenly try to inject value into $1.50 favourites by taking them as standouts for a win in trifectas. Certainly all the punters who tried to get value out of Royalsyn by taking the filly as their standout for first in a trifecta got wiped out. No value in that.

Weight does make a difference Alf Matthews

Outstanding three year old colt Regal Shot was showing $1.50 on the win tote. When pointing out what a "good thing" he was at at Sandown did Alf Matthews noted that the colt was rising in weight from 55.5kg. to 58.5kg. and added, "That is not going to make any difference to it."

Of course a hefty weight rise is going to make a difference.
It is a media promoted punting myth, "The horse has the class. It deserves the weight."

Next page
Beware these horses - save your money
Watch those jockeys and trainers
Expect the unexpected
Betting markets get it wrong again
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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