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22/4/2006 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Caulfield, 15/4/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Classiconi
60kg.
2
1000
$6.00
2/12
Jakodae
59.5kg.
10
1400
$8.00
9/10
Caulfield, 1/4/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Medium Swing
59kg.
1
1100
$10.00
10/10
Casual Pass
61kg.
6
1800
$7.50
5/11
Cheltenham, 1/4/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Power And Faith
59kg.
9
1466
$4.20fav.
2/9
Rosehill, 25/3/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sam Sung A Song
59kg.
9
1400
$6.00
7/9
Morphettville, 25/3/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Royal Player
59kg.
5
2600
$2.70fav.
6/8
Almost Never
59kg.
7
1600
$2.40fav.
5/11
Honalee
59kg.
2
1100
$7.50
4/13
Flemington, 18/3/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ulysses
60kg.
7
2000
$6.00
2/10
Falkirk
60kg.
8
1100
$5.50
1/16
Eagle Farm, 18/3/2006
Horse
Weight
 Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tellem
59kg.
17
1400
$6.00
1/19
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find value betting odds
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Value Winner horse racing betting system
Be a winning punter on Slow and Heavy tracks
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick Australian Derby Day & Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 15/4/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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