Check the strike rates of the senior jockeys. It can give you a very good idea of who the best jockeys are. The statistics are far more important than listening to the rubbish given to you by the racing media. Every time they interview a jockey they tell you how brilliant the jockey is. What a load of codswallop!

Last Saturday at Flemington in a Mares Open over 1420 metres Dolphin Dance was sent out the short priced $3.20 favourite. Consider these points:

1. She rose in weight from 53.5kg. at her previous start when she finished second in a similar race to a hefty 58kg. Ignore the nonsense like, "She's OK. at the weights. It's a 55kg. minimum." The horse doesn't know. The most weight Dolphin Dance had carried at her four runs this time in had been 53.5kg.

2. She had barrier 11 in the field of 12. Another significant minus.

3. Her jockey was the media hyped Kerrin McEvoy, who won on Brew in the 2000 Melbourne Cup. The facts are he is a low winning strike rate jockey. On favourites he wins only 22% of the time. Compare that with Scott Seamer who has a 38% strike rate or Jim Cassidy and Nash Rawiller both with a 35% strike rate.

Dolphin Dance ran a great race after working to the lead from her wide barrier. She fought off Belle Princess in the straight only to be claimed near the line by a swooper, Bellistic Miss. The $64 question is: How would Dolphin Dance have fared if one of the three jockeys mentioned above had the ride?

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Another Warrior - absolute betting disaster

Prepost markets are notoriously inaccurate. We ignore them. That is why we were absolutely astounded to see the ridiculously short prepost prices actually being bet about promising three year old colt Another Warrior.

Punters are looking to throw money away taking around $1.30 on Another Warrior beating 11 seasoned, older horses over the 1805 metres of the race.

Another Warrior was ridden by smart claiming apprentice Michael Rodd who won the previous two starts on the colt by a combined total of 15 lengths. He settled Another Warrior in an excellent position, third on the rails, behind the leader, Moringa's Gulliver.

On Another Warrior's outside was Final Forecast ridden by Glenn Colless. For the entire, long Eagle Farm straight Another Warrior was unable to get a run. Glenn Colless did the hotpot no favours by keeping Final Forecast racing close and on Another Warrior's outside. Another Warrior was trapped on the rails with nowhere to go.

Bad luck in running has to be a factor when you assess what price you are prepared to take about a horse. Horses can also have an off day. They are not machines. Similarly the best of jockeys can have an off day. That is why the odds taken about Another Warrior were nothing short of ridiculous.

Needing to get the winner right 75% of the time and still not making a dollar. That is not called smart betting. By backing good horses at decent odds you put the strike rate in your favour. It makes much more sense to only need a 20% or smaller winning strike rate than 75%.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.