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21/11/2009 edition
Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class
We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class,"
to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly
we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above
the minimum."
Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how
handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse
will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.
In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety
vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly
with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.
The table below shows how horses
that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting
ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.)
We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information
over the long term.
Rosehill - 14/11/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Shadow Assassin |
60.5kg. |
6 |
1200 |
$3.20fav. |
2/9 |
Flemington - 7/11/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Markus Maximus |
59kg. |
9 |
1600 |
$9.00 |
9/10 |
Royal Ida |
59kg. |
11 |
1400 |
$6.50 |
4/14 |
Doomben - 7/11/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Mitanni |
59kg. |
6 |
1350 |
$9.00 |
3/12 |
Morphettville - 7/11/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Zaazorro |
59kg. |
3 |
1100 |
$4.00 |
7/9 |
Pencelaron |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1100 |
$10.00 |
9/9 |
Rosehill - 31/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
The Jackal |
60kg. |
9 |
1200 |
$10.00 |
7/9 |
Doomben - 24/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Listen Son |
59kg. |
4 |
1615 |
$3.20fav. |
7/10 |
Strat's Flyer |
60kg. |
6 |
1350 |
$2.90fav. |
4/13 |
Caulfield Cup Day - 17/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
So Anyway |
59kg. |
11 |
1400 |
$6.00fav. |
2/12 |
Run For Naara |
59kg. |
5 |
2000 |
$7.50 |
1/13 |
Eagle Farm - 17/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Bazzooka |
59kg. |
8 |
1200 |
$9.00 |
3/10 |
Burdekin Blues |
59kg. |
7 |
1000 |
$1.70fav. |
1/11 |
Morphettville - 17/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Zyzxx |
59kg. |
2 |
1200 |
$9.00 |
10/13 |
Rosehill - 10/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
I've Got Talent |
59kg. |
10 |
1100 |
$11.00 |
3/14 |
Eagle Farm - 10/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Mitanni |
59kg. |
5 |
1200 |
$11.00 |
5/8 |
Flemington - 3/10/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Ista Kareem |
59kg. |
10 |
2500 |
$10.00 |
4/13 |
Doomben - 26/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Hard To Catch |
59kg. |
1 |
1350 |
$6.50 |
5/5 |
Morphettville - 26/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Maestro Of Murano |
59.5kg. |
1 |
2250 |
$3.80 |
8/11 |
Rosehill - 19/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Lucky Secret |
60kg. |
5 |
1100 |
$5.50 |
1/9 |
Morphettville - 19/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Lord L'anno |
59kg. |
8 |
1600 |
$6.50 |
4/9 |
Rosehill - 12/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Hot Danish |
61kg. |
4 |
1200 |
$2.50fav. |
1/8 |
Racing To Win |
60kg. |
11 |
1400 |
$6.50 |
1/11 |
Moonee Valley - 12/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Umanugget |
59kg. |
5 |
1500 |
$3.80efav. |
6/8 |
Lady Lynette |
59kg. |
4 |
1200 |
$11.00 |
4/10 |
Randwick - 5/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Onemorenomore |
60kg. |
8 |
1400 |
$11.00 |
4/9 |
Drumbeats |
59kg. |
1 |
1400 |
$6.50 |
2/12 |
Flemington - 5/9/2009 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Carrara |
59kg. |
4 |
1400 |
$3.80fav. |
1/14 |
Light Vision |
60.5kg. |
4 |
1400 |
$4.80fav. |
2/10 |
Maldivian |
60kg. |
11 |
1200 |
$10.00 |
13/15 |
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This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win
index
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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