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21/11/2009
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 7th. November, 2009, the final day of the four days Flemington Melbourne Cup Carnival.
Randwick: Track Dead
R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 70. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Bandar
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Devils Arcade
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R3 $70,000 3YO and upwards. Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Blackbriar
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Aristocratico
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gary Portelli
R4 $70,000 3YO. Rating 74. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Khas Kura
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $31,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Rockabee Miss
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Paqul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
R2 $26,500 Rating 91. Handicap.
Distance: 2036 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Blue Maggich
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Barry Dunn
Winner: Moggaden
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell
R3 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Finniss Storm
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis
Winner: Akatak
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $21.50
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Karen Byrnes
R4 $26,500 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Believe 'N' Achieve
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R5 $31,000 3YO and upwards. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: About Me
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: John Hyam
Winner: Tudor Spirit
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.10
Jockey: Claudia Lions
Trainer: Mark Minervini
This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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