21/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Hit - a "certainty" from the John Hawkes' stable

At Victoria Park, to all intents and purposes, three year old gelding Hit looked an absolute certainty to win the 3YO Open over 1263 metres.

Hit had won a Saturday class 2YO Open at Caulfield in April this year carrying 56.5kg. He had also finished third behind Portsmouth in a 2YO Listed race at Flemington in May this year. He was then sent for a spell.

At Victoria Park, Hit was second up after finishing fourth in a 3YO Listed race at Sandown on August 25 carrying 55kg. After apprentice Chris Symons's three kilos claim Hit came in brilliantly at the weights with only 54kg. in a considerably inferior race at Victoria Park.

Tote punters decided that Hit was an absolute moral and he started odds on ($2.50 with the bookies). Chris Symons rode Hit perfectly. He settled him on the speed and gave him every chance. But in the straight Hit folded badly and finished down the track, beaten by eight lengths.

Whatever the reason, as we continue to say on this site, many horses from the John Hawkes' stable sent out as certainties end up being far from that. We top rated Hit, but would never have backed it at the poor odds. Our next three rated horses made the trifecta, which paid $556 on SuperTab.

Distance doubts - watch out

At Eagle Farm last Saturday, six year old gelding Dash Of Bay was entered in an Open Handicap over 1826 metres. He had 36 race starts but had never raced over the distance. His 10 wins were between 1200 and 1400 metres.

Now that must surely be telling you something. Why has such an experienced horse not won a race further than 1400 metres? Why hadn't the horse raced over the distance earlier?

On top of that Dash Of Bay had barrier seven in the eight horse field. Not particularly pleasant when you realise the barrier is located in the middle of a turn.

To many punters all that was irrelevant. On track when Dash Of Bay started at $2.50 they gave him at least a 40% chance of winning the race. Tote punters even thought $2.00 at the jump was value - they gave Dash Of Bay at least a 50% chance of winning the race!

Only a top ride by outstanding apprentice Zac Purton resulted in Dash Of Bay putting in a good run - and finishing second.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Alf Matthews - egg on his face?
What you need to know about Carnival racing
This horse is due to win
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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