21/9/2001 edition

Northerly Beats Sunline

Horse racing media puts slows on Northerly!

What an outstanding win by Northerly last Saturday, defeating Sunline after the champion mare looked to have the race shot to pieces rounding the home turn, leading the field by three lengths and threatening a demolition job, while Northerly appeared to be under pressure.

Many in the racing media got it wrong. For example every tipster in The Sportsman picked Sunline to win. The Sports 927 racing panel of tipsters all tipped Sunline. These were not isolated examples, either, of massive, and as it turned out, ill founded media support for Sunline.

Punters were told about Northerly's poor track gallop the previous Tuesday. Doubts about his ability to handle Moonee Valley and even handle the Dead rated track were also thrown up. Talk about trying to make backing an outstanding horse difficult.

The fact Northerly ran two track records in February and March during his last Melbourne campaign was forgotten. So too was the fact that Northerly had the better jockey, Damien Oliver, compared to Sunline's Greg Childs.

Many punters were sensible enough to dismiss the media slows for Northerly during the week and on the raceday. They've no doubt by now learned from their pockets when all the media tips a horse as a certainty there's no value and plenty of them lose.

If the betting followed the one sidedness of the media tipping then Sunline would have been at unbackable odds, something like $1.10. However Sunline started at $1.70 while on track Northerly firmed from $3.50 to $3.20 and was even shorter on the totes, a very skinny $2.90.

That is also why top betting ring odds on horses well in the market, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, are essential if you are going to give yourself a fighting chance at the punt. Noone refunds part of your losing bets. So you cannot afford to get unders on your winning bets.

The punters who got top official betting ring odds of $3.50 about Northerly could have their next two level stakes bets lose and would still be returning 17% profit on turnover over the three bets.

But all the tote punters who got tote odds of $2.90 about Northerly and had their next two level stakes bets lose would be showing a 3% loss on turnover over the three bets.

It is just about impossible to win at the punt by win betting short priced favourites and second favourites on the totes. Yet that is what just about every punter does. That also helps to explain why at least 95% of punters will be long term losers.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Damien Oliver - get good odds
Betting strategy for small fields
Hit - another John Hawkes' "good thing"
Alf Matthews - egg on his face?
Distance doubts - watch out
What you need to know about Carnival racing
This horse is due to win
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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