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Punt to Win |
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21/6/2002 edition Value Betting Favourites Short priced favourites are the winners of punters' popularity contests. That does not mean they are good bets. Backed at best odds in the Melbourne and Sydney bookmaker betting rings many are poor value. Backed on the tote at usually much shorter odds makes them even poorer value. In the examples below there are some guidelines to avoid backing false favourites. Rosehill: 2YO gelding Obsession was first up with barrier 11 of 11 and handicapped with 60kg. at Rosehill over 1100 metres. $2.80 favourite? Finished sixth. 4YO gelding Jammojack $1.90 odds on favourite in a field of 14 was a hype horse after easily winning his only two starts. There were media comments like "the most interesting horse racing at Rosehill today is Jammojack. Bart Cummings has big wraps on him." Jammojack went up in class from an easy 1 Metro. Win midweek race on a Slow track to a 2 Metro Wins Saturday class race on a Good track. He had every chance on Saturday and finished second, beaten by over a length. It's always dangerous taking short odds about a very lightly raced horse talked up in the media. Sandown: 5YO gelding Thong And Pushbike started $4.00 favourite in a 1200 metres Open Handicap. He is just an honest battler with nine wins and two seconds from 51 starts. With many realistic chances in the field of 11, he was simply sent out too short for an honest battler. Finished sixth. 5YO gelding Roktzar started $3.50 favourite in a 1600 metres Open Handicap. From barrier 13 of 13 and top weight of 59.5kg. before the claim it looked a risky bet at those odds. For most apprentices the claim is there because they need it! This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
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