21/6/2002 edition

Trainer Tips
and
Sky Racing Leg-ups

Contesting the 1200 metres Open Handicap at Sandown was Inkamulla, who had three wins from three starts at the track. His trainer John O'Connor was asked about Inkamulla's chances in the race by Sky Racing's Alf Matthews:

"It's a very open fillies and mares race here. I know fillies and mares do the three. Can he make it four from four?"

Trainer John O'Connor replied:

"Well Alf, there's no reason why he can't. But it's a very difficult task. It's like throwing four heads at a two up game. You can throw three but .." not too many get four in a row.

That was amusing. We all know that 50% of those who throw three heads in a row will throw the fourth head in a row on their next throw. The coin suddenly doesn't mysteriously get two tails after three heads come up in a row.

Despite the fact that it was a "very difficult task", trainer John O'Connor was also "quietly confident" and went on to give the positives about Inkamulla's recent form.

It was hardly a big leg up. It was more like having a bet each way on the horse winning and losing and being right whatever happened. Did those punters who took notice of the negatives get it wrong because after the race, which Inkamulla won, John Tapp said from the Sky Racing studio:

"Gee. We got a good leg up for that winner from trainer John O'Connor a short time back."

Inkamulla paid $6.60. If backing winners and making a profit was that easy. To just see a horse with three wins from three starts at the track and back it again at that track. Unfortunately that doesn't work.

But there is some merit if you are getting reasonably decent odds about the horse. Usually punters flock to horses with 100% win strike rates after a few runs at a track and send those horses around at incredibly short odds.

In Inkamulla's case you were looking at an 8YO gelding with 82 starts, trained at Murray Bridge by a relatively obscure trainer and who races mainly in South Australia. If it was a 4YO with 15 starts trained at Caulfield by Lee Freedman you would not have got anywhere near $6.60.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sandown track bias - punters destroyed
Bet for value
Trainer tips and Sky Racing leg-ups
Horseracing selection criteria - helpful tips
Money talks - Rosehill and Sandown plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/6/2002
Punt to Win index

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