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21/5/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, May 14.

Randwick: Track Dead

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Really Flying
Result: third
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Lilly O'Reilly
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Lenny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $55,000 3YO Fillies. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Florilegium
Result: first
 Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Equal Favourite: Arisara
Result: second
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
Jockey: Mitchell Bell
Trainer: Ron Quinton
Equal Favourite: Class Act
Result: fourth
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

Sandown Hillside: Track Good

R2 $40,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Miss Debonair
Result: first
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R3 $40,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cos Snip
Result: first
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Doug Harrison

R7 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sunnah
Result: second
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Anthony Darmanin
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Delvecchio
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Mick Price

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting favourites at Brisbane and Adelaide
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Flemington
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 14/5/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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