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21/3/2015 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 7th. March, 2015.
(There were no small horse race fields on Saturday, 14th. March, 2015.)

Randwick: Track Good.
Randwick Guineas Day.

R2 $300,000 Todman Stakes. 2YO. Colts and Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Headwater
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.75
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Winner: Vancouver
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R6 $600,000 Randwick Guineas. 3YO. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Shooting To Win
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden
Winner: Hallowed Crown
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Bart & James Cummings

Flemingon: Track Good.
Australian Guineas Day.

R2 $100,000 3YO & UP. Fillies and Mares. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Missy Longstocking
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Liam Birchley
Winner: Sino Eagle
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $150,000 Group 3. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Akavoroun
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Winner: Amorino
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.50
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Archie Alexander

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 28th. February, 2015.

Warwick Farm: Track Soft.
Chipping Norton Stakes Day.

R2 $175,000 Skyline Stakes. 2YO. Colts & geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Exosphere
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: John O'Shea

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wide barriers winning odds & betting myth
Big punters & banned punters you can win here!
The Free Trifecta Lay the Favourite horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Australian Cup & Newmarket Handicap - 14/3/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: Australian Guineas & Randwick Guineas - 7/3/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: Blue Diamond Stakes & Oakleigh Plate - 28/2/2015
Free horse racing Top Four Ratings & betting tips membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 14/3/2015, 7/3/2015 & 28/2/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
 Punt to Win 28/2/2015
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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