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21/2/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 14th. February, 2009.
Moonee Valley
Australia Stakes Day
Track: R1-3 Dead 4, R4-9 Good 3
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 4.64
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Viking Legend
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-5
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R2 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Itstheone
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Mic Mac
Days since last start: 50
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Greg Eurell
R4 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Distinctive Lass
Days since last start: 102
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 11-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R5 $180,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Keano
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 5-10
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R6 $180,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Romneya
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R7 $400,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Weekend Hussler
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Ross McDonald
R8 $180,000 Mares. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Fifth Avenue Lady
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R9 $70,000 4YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Road To Rock
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Comments:
The three favourites in R2, R5 and R7 that were unplaced at their previous start in their current campaign, including Weekend Hussler, which started at $1.75, all failed to win. In addition, Distinctive Lass in R4 resumed after a spell of over 100 days and also did not win. Of the four winning favourites, two won their previous start while two finished second. Road To Rock in R9 won at short odds despite jumping in distance from 1200 metres to 1500 metres.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Tote betting odds in small horse racing fields
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/1/2009
The Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2009 & 7/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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