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21/2/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Sunday, 8th. February, 2009.

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lady Rock
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Arms Wide Open
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

Here are the results from Saturday, 7th. February, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Delago Bolt
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gary Portelli

R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Buzzy Henry
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Hadaaf
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.40
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Joseph Pride

R5 $200,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Burdekin Blues
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Barry Baldwin

R6 $70,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Vision And Power
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Joseph Pride

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tote betting odds in small horse racing fields
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/1/2009
The Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2009 & 7/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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