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20/12/2002 edition

Brisbane Bookmakers
Poor Betting Odds

It's now official. Brisbane bookmakers are now offering very tight betting odds just like their Adelaide counterparts.

Maybe governments could legislate to prevent bookmakers from offering starting price odds at Saturday meetings like the markets in the tables below?

Have a look at the starting prices for some of the races from Eagle Farm last Saturday.

Eagle Farm
Race three
1200 metres. 2YO Colts and Geldings.
Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Horse
SP Odds
%
Best Northern
6.00 16.67
Kings Coup 6.50 15.38
Tapca 21.00 4.76
Get Carter 4.20 23.81
Gold Stars 2.35 42.55
Buck Season 16.00 6.25
Captain Zigzag 13.00 7.69
Special Lad 8.00 12.50
Sir Success 10.00 10.00
Trooper Dane 101.00 0.99
Boomaker SP market percentage 140.60%

.

Eagle Farm
Race four
1200 metres. Rs2ly.
Horse
SP Odds
%
Animate
5.00 20.00
Foxmore 5.50 18.18
The Expat 2.00 50.00
Mallet 13.00 7.69
Miner's Union 11.00 9.09
Flat 13.00 7.69
Road To Heaven 10.00 10.00
Scarlex 21.00 4.76
For Love 26.00 3.85
Prince Starlight 15.00 6.67
Scenic Flight 71.00 1.41
Boomaker SP market percentage 139.34%

Betting into markets like that is why you cannot just give a bookmaker a top fluctuation or starting price bet unless you are also able to give minimum odds with your bet.

If the bookmaker tells you he is doing you a favour by giving you top fluctuation or starting price then point out that is a poor bet without being able to give minimum odds that you see as value with your bet.

You could offer a compromise, like I have done, and tell the bookie you will place the bet without minimum odds provided the price is appropriately adjusted to a market of 110%.

If you do not give minimum value odds when you bet into markets of 140% you will be battling to break anywhere near even over the long term.

A market of 140% is equivalent to being offered $1.43 about the toss of a coin when break even odds are $2.00. Or taking $2.00 about any of the traditional even money roulette bets like odds/evens/red or black. But with one slight difference - instead of there being just one zero on the wheel, there are now 16 zeros on the wheel.

That's what you are up against in betting markets set to 140%. It's like playing roulette with 16 zeros on the wheel.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting John Hawkes' trained horses
Brisbane bookmakers - poor betting odds
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830
Fox Helios 25.30 30.10 $480
Janadi 25.40 29.20 $380
Baal Yabba 14.90 18.10 $320


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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