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20/11/2010
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the Morphettville results from Saturday, 6th. November, 2010.
On this day the $1,000,000 Group 1 Cantala Stakes (registered name), was run over 1600 metres at Flemington horse racing track and won by the Jeff Lynds trained Wall Street, ridden by Hugh Bowman. Wall Street firmed from $6.50 to start at $6.00 in the Flemington bookmakers' betting ring on track.
Morphettville: Track Good.
R1 $32,000 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Bob's Shout
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Roslyn Day
Winner: Budriguez
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly
R2 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Daydream Charlie
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: Shane Oxlade
Winner: Brad Star
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: Vincent Bradley
R3 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lapel
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Bergstrom
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: Karen Byrnes
R4 $32,000 Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Miss With Attitude
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas
R6 $32,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Dubai Me Diamonds
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.90
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Jeter
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Betting favourites in small fields: Flemington & Randwick - 6/11/2010 - click here
This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting first up horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The "Lay the Favourite" Trifecta horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic & Guineas Day - 13/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day - 6/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day - 30/10/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 2/11/2010
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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