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20/9/2002 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 69kg. (70 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill 14/9/2002
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ancient Song
60kg.
8
1200
$11.00
1/16
Viva La Vie
59kg.
8
1500
$101.00
11/12
Dress Circle
60.5kg.
3
2000
$7.00
1/9
Native Jazz
59kg.
7
2000
$10.00
3/9
Assertive Lad
61kg.
10
1300
$13.00
10/12
Defier
59.5kg.
6
1300
$3.20f.
1/12
Red Hannigan
59kg.
4
1100
$15.00
11/13
Time Out
59kg.
10
1100
$5.00
8/13
Another two horses at Moonee Valley, two horses at Eagle Farm and one horse at Morphettville had apprentice claims which reduced their weight to below 59kg.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bel Esprit beaten
Carnival racing favourites, value betting odds
Interesting handicapping tips - weight and barriers
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/9/2002
Punt to Win index


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