20/9/2002 edition

Carnival Horseracing
Value Betting Odds

Spring Carnival racing is well and truly here. Races are already having an early affect on the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup betting markets.

It is absolutely essential to get genuine value with your bets. Many horses going around as $4.00 favourites in fields of 15 runners are well under their true winning chances.

Have a look at some of the horses that went around as beaten favourites last Saturday:

Moonee Valley:

Bel Esprit - $1.40 in the Group 1, Weight For Age Manikato Stakes. Totally absurd considering the quality of the opposition including Mistegic, Dash For Cash and the winner Spinning Hill.

Ugachaka - $2.80. Punters must like throwing their money away on this Lee Freedman trained mare. She generally gets back in the field and needs a lot of luck to win. Barrier one at Moonee Valley was not going to do her any favours. Sure enough, she was held up rounding the home turn and for the majority of the short Moonee Valley straight.

Bidaily - $4.00 in a very open field of 14. This 4YO gelding was back in distance from 1700 metres to 1500 metres, always difficult. He had to contend with a weight increase from 53kg. to 55.5kg. and also barrier 14. Sally Wynne rode the horse. It would have been a very tough ask for one of the leading jockeys. Bidaily ended up wide throughout, got tightened rounding the home turn and dropped out to finish a well beaten last.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bel Esprit beaten
Carnival racing favourites, value betting odds
Interesting handicapping tips - weight and barriers
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/9/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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