20/7/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Alloy - first class win

This lightly raced five year old horse, with an impressive record of six wins and two placings from only eight starts had barrier 10 in a restricted 1200 metres event at Rosehill.

Despite the ride by Corey Brown, where Alloy was midfield, wide throughout without cover, Alloy won. It was a classy win. The horse could well measure up against much better company.

La Rieuse no luck again.

Ignore media comments about this filly having every chance last Saturday. She again had bad luck, after never getting a run in the straight at her previous start. From barrier nine in the 10 horse field, over the 1500 metres at Rosehill, Hugh Bowman had her wide throughout.

She put in a nice finish and just went down by a short neck. Considering the field though, $2.25 was skinny odds. Maybe astute trainer Ron Quinton, (he has that outstandingly honest performer Juggling Time who wins at big odds,) could consider a jockey change.

And the winner? The John Hawkes' trained Trencher at $6.00. He was beaten in the Heavy at Caulfield by 11 lengths at his previous start and gave every indication that he disliked rain affected going.

Jumps racing again.

We have made some pretty harsh comments about jumps racing in recent weeks.

What can you say about the $150,000 Grand National Steeplechase held at Flemington last Saturday? Sure, it was a top performance by 10 year old gelding, Leading Bounty, who started at $8.00, to win the race for a second year in a row.

What about the $3.20 favourite, Corker's Boy? We certainly wouldn't be interested in taking those short odds in a 4700 metres race with 22 high jumps to clear. At the 1400 Corker's Boy, who had settled well back in the field, was lucky not to be brought down by Kingston Campbell, who made a terrible mess of the jump and was later pulled up. Corker's Boy never got into the race and was beaten by 25 lengths.

Weight, weight, weight

On June 30 at Victoria Park Manetti put in an outstanding run in the 1300 metres Open Handicap and won by five lengths. With the claim for well above average apprentice Mark Pegus, Manetti only carried 52.5kg.

Last Saturday at Morphettville Manetti was back in distance to 1200 metres. He also had a senior jockey in Dwayne Dunn which meant a hefty weight increase to 57.5kg.

Manetti worked hard early to get the lead. He opened up a lead of three lengths early in the straight. When challenged he really fought hard, and finished third in the seven horse field. It was a very good run with 57.5kg.

Without the hefty weight increase Manetti would have won and won well. Weight is a huge leveller. There was no way known that the paltry Adelaide bookmaker odds of only $2.20 for Manetti was value.

You either left the race alone or found value and backed against Manetti. With a starting price market for only a seven horse field over 120% it was difficult to justify value for any horse in the race.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
John Hawkes - let's win
Form analysis
Why you should not be too forgiving

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