20/7/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Trial form is not race form

Three year old gelding Pastime became a media hype horse after he won his first three race starts in October and November last year by five, five and over eight lengths.

At his next three starts in January to March this year against much better company, including two Black Type races, his best starting price was $2.80. The prices were no reflection of his performances. His best finish was third.

Sent out for a spell, he was now ready to resume at Rosehill on July 14. The racing media everywhere was heavily pushing the gelding as a "good thing". There was nearly a full page feature article in The Sportsman where we were told:

"The son of Snippets was sensational in a barrier trial at Rosehill on July 3 where he won by nine lengths over talented mare Mulan Princess in a good time of 54.3 for 900m.

That is a sound indication the horse is on cue for another first-up win."

So Pastime was sent out as $2.00 favourite in the 1200 metres 2YO Open. From barrier one he had the run of the race and comfortably led the field. Early in the home straight he was under pressure and finished last. His fourth loss in a row as a short priced favourite.

Trial form is not race form. There are no set weights and horses are not put under any pressure by their jockeys. If trial form was a true form indicator then you would never back John Hawkes' horses who consistently underperform in trials and then come out and win first up.

Thong Classic - now there's consistency

Unlike Pastime this three year old colt does not have a big boom on him. Unlike Pastime he is also super consistent.

After a seven weeks freshen up he dropped back in distance from 2040 metres to 1200 metres at Flemington. After trailing the field by three lengths at one stage he finished powerfully to win.

That was also Thong Classic's tenth race start. He has never missed a place and has three wins, four seconds and two thirds. His starting price on Saturday was $11.00. But then, unlike Pastime, Thong Classic isn't a media hype horse.

Track problems?

Following her powerful second up performance at Victoria Park on June 30 when she was only beaten a neck by Chekwenya in a 3YO Open, Icy Gaze was sent out a $2.50 favourite at Morphettville last Saturday in a similar race.

After jumping she settled outside the leader and eventual winner, Ambroc, but then started ominously drifting back through the field. She put in a dismal performance and never went a yard on the Slow rated track, showing a disliking for the conditions. Yet she had a win and a placing from two starts on Slow rated going at the Victorian outer suburban track, Cranbourne

When tracks are rain affected some tracks have different characteristics. For example a Slow or Heavy track at Moonee Valley is not the same as a similar rated track at Sandown. Maybe that was the problem with Icy Gaze.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
First class win
John Hawkes - let's win
Jockey watch
Form analysis
Why you should not be too forgiving
And much more...

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