John Size, amazing results
You can only wonder at the training skills of John Size in getting
horses set to perform at their best in big races.
Last Saturday at Randwick he trained winners at huge odds in the $1,000,000
Galaxy with Padstow starting at $51.00 and in the $500,000
Chairman's Handicap with Steel Phoenix starting at $26.00.
But that was not all!
Defier started at $26.00 and finished second in a $250,000
3YO Listed race while Sir Clive ran second at $31.00 in
the $1,900,000 AJC Australian Derby.
Weight the great leveller
The horse may have the class in the handicap race but its weight
handicap is aimed precisely at reducing its ability or class to that
of the other runners. So it is incorrect to say, "The horse has
the class and deserves the weight," one of the favourite sayings
from some in the racing media when they are tipping the horse to win despite
carrying the grandstand.
At Oakbank on Saturday, in a 3YO Open Shaye Spice was sent out
as $2.40 favourite. She had a 3.5kg. weight rise to 56.5kg. from her
unlucky second in a 3YO Open at Morphettville two weeks earlier. On
top of that she started from barrier 12. The result: she raced on the
speed but was trapped wide, weakened over the last 200 metres and was
beaten by three lengths.
At Eagle Farm Fetes Galantes was burdened with 58kg. in a 3YO
Class 6, a rise of 3kg. from the weight she carried to win at her last
start in a similar race five weeks earlier over 1400 metres.
So she had:
1. Not raced for five weeks.
2. Was dropping back in distance from 1615 metres to 1400 metres.
3. Was rising in weight by 3kg. to a hefty 58kg.
Despite everything, she hit the lead at the 150 and for all money looked
the winner. But the increased weight combined with lack of race fitness
told, she got the staggers and was headed near the line.
What price should she have been?
Plenty of punters took $4.00 about her, in our view very skinny odds.
Money muncher
In the same race as Fetes Galantes, Ena's Treasure was sent
out as $3.25 favourite. Considering her history, under the odds. This
filly had just two wins in 18 starts. But she did have a number of things
going for her:
1. She did have an excellent third in a similar standard race at the
track in December.
2. She also was racefit after three runs in from a spell.
3. Her last start was also a most impressive win in track record time
at Toowoomba over 1200 metres carrying 56kg.
4. She dropped in weight to 54.5kg.
5. She was drawn beautifully in barrier one.
6. She had the same jockey as last start.
She was ridden a treat by Jim Byrne. When you expected her to challenge
in the straight, like most low strike rate animals with ability, they
rarely put their best hoof forward. She was just happy to amble along
to the line.
Why bet in this race?
With handicaps you can often tell what sort of quality race you
are dealing with by looking at the highest weighted horses. At Oakbank
on Monday they held a Country Cup over 1900 metres.
Just the words "Country Cup" should alert you to what is usually
a very poor punting race. This race was furthermore restricted to horses
with no metropolitan wins in the previous year. The top weight, Zerkalamio,
was a seven year old gelding who had managed just seven wins from
45 starts and $61,000 in prizemoney.
A punter we know commented," Well, if they bet in that race they'll
bet on spiders crawling up a wall." It was no surprise to see a
horse like Bitski, an 11 year old veteran of 149 races, having
his 150th. race, win at odds of $30. A great achievement by the horse.
But it also tells you all you need to know about the race.
Next: Punt
to Win 13/4/2001
Four pages crammed with horse racing, punting and betting tips.
Top Odds Are Important
If you regularly get poor odds
you must lose.
Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.
|
Horse |
Get
these prices!! |
Or
these prices? |
| Assertive Lad |
12.00 |
7.50 |
| Century Kid |
8.50 |
6.40 |
| Flying Ana |
5.00 |
4.30 |
| Varsilayos |
3.25 |
2.60 |
| Eyes On Success |
2.50 |
1.90 |