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20/4/2001 edition
Ignore These Betting Tips
Sky Racing's Brisbane race caller Alan Thomas is an outstanding race caller, and that's what
he should stick to.
Last Saturday, before the first at Eagle Farm, a very ordinary Classs
6 event over 1826 metres Alan Thomas had this to say about Boldon,
an honest galloper, but certainly no star.
"This is the best bet of the day. I don't know what price they'll
put up, but any price about a winner is a good price."
Boldon at terribly short odds of $2.25 finished a
well beaten, weakening fifth in the 10 horse field. But it is his cliched
piece of "punting wisdom" that he told Sky Racing's national
punting audience, which we have highlighted red, that we take exception
to.
It is statistically false.
Example: I'll roll a dice. I'll have a bet with you. You choose a
number from one to six and if you win I'll give you even money. Remember,
Alan Thomas said,"Any price about a winner is a good price."
I don't think anything more needs to be said about that.
No good things
Randwick last Saturday had tough races with wide open fields, yet many
horses were sent around as short priced favourites.
In the 3YO Fillies Group 3 over 2000 metres Calm Smytzer started
at $2.80 and finished second. When you look at the form and ability
of other runners like Maitland Gold, Life Is Beautiful, Gentle Genius
and the winner Lady Mulan, there was no way Calm Smytzer
had a 36% chance of winning the race, which is what $2.80 or the traditional
7/4 is equivalent to. We rated Calm Smytzer at $4.50 or only a 22% chance
of winning.
Similarly what was Camena doing going around in the Group 1 Galaxy
Handicap at $2.50? Good as she is, she did not have a 40% chance of
winning that race when you consider opposition like Falvelon, who
coming into the event had won 11races from 17 starts, including an outstanding
international win in Hong Kong at his last start, and Black Bean,
who has put in some outstanding runs at Group 1 level. Not to mention
plenty of other quality runners in the field. Camena finished a well
beaten second behind Padstow, and never looked like winning.
In the Chairman's Handicap, a Group 3 event over 2400 metres Tiger's
Eye was sent out at $2.60. He did not have a 38% chance of winning
the race. You only have to look at the form of some of the other runners
like Pasta Express and Giovanna to see that Tiger's Eye
was shocking value. He finished last. Something went wrong with him
during the race and he pulled up distressed. That's just another reason
why taking short odds on horses is fraught with danger.
Punters did collect with Spinning Hill, but my oh my, what a
shocking bet, even though she won. Believe it or not, professionals
we know would prefer to be on the right horse even if it loses, than
on the wrong horse which is a poor bet, even if it wins!
Let's explain:
1. Spinning Hill started at $1.70, long odds on.
2. Spinning Hill was rising in weight from 56kg. to 57.5kg.
3. Spinning Hill was dropping back in distance from 1500 metres to 1200
metres.
4. With only a three weeks' break that made her a very risky bet.
Keep taking $1.70 about horses rising in weight, and dropping back dramatically
in distance with only a few weeks' break and you can guarantee there
will be a long term loss. There is no way you will win 58% of the time
which is needed at $1.70 just to break even.
It was no surprise to see Spinning Hill beaten for early pace and need
luck in the straight to win.
Next Pages
What a consistent racehorse
Make money - watch out for these horses
Punters over optimistic?
An amazing horse trainer
Weight handicapping
Win strike rate is important
Save your money - avoid betting in these races
Top Odds Are Important
If you regularly get poor odds
you must lose.
Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.
|
Horse |
Get
these prices!! |
Or
these prices? |
| Assertive Lad |
12.00 |
7.50 |
| Century Kid |
8.50 |
6.40 |
| Flying Ana |
5.00 |
4.30 |
| Varsilayos |
3.25 |
2.60 |
| Eyes On Success |
2.50 |
1.90 |
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