20/2/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, February 14.

Flemington: Track Good
R3 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Silver Birch
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mick Cerchi
Winner: Tuareg
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes

R4 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: River Dove
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.40
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton
Winner: Masindor
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Doug Duryea

Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $22,000 2YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: North Flower
Result: first
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R2 $20,000 3YO Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Major's Creek
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $3.20
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: Tuscanna
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Naomi Parker
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R7 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1310 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Smokey Ireland
Result: third
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Cody Morgan
Trainer: John Kluske
Winner: House Guest
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R8 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1812 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Red Rose
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctation: $3.10
Jockey: Jason Lyon
Trainer: Dion Koch
Winner: Outback Lad
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

This edition of Punt to Win:
Worst horse racing bet of the century
Watch those jockey/horse combinations
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick Inner, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/2/2004
Punt to Win index

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