|
19/9/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 12th. September, 2009.
Moonee Valley
Track: Good
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 4.51
R1 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 8
Equal Favourite: Alkhafif
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
Equal Favourite: Umanugget
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R2 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Quick Blush
Days since last start: 213
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: David Hayes
R3 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Bubble Below
Days since last start: 168
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Michael Kent
R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Pass Me By
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Eagle Falls
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Jason Maskiel
Trainer: David Hayes
R6 $200,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Nicconi
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R7 $500,000 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes.
Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Whobegotyou
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R8 $200,000 W. H. Stocks Stakes.
Mares.
Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Zarita
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Pat Hyland
R9 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Shocking
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 6-14
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Comments:
Punters backing favourites had yet another winning day, with a 40% winning strike rate. Three of the four winning favourites finished in the top three at their previous start which was no more than 21 days earlier.
In R6 the David Hayes trained favourite, Nicconi, won first up after a spell of 147 days. The favourites in R2, Quick Blush, resuming after 213 days and in R3, Bubble Below, resuming after 168 days, were not successful.
In R1 Alkhafif, which finished fourth in its previous race and in R9 Shocking, which finished sixth in its previous race, both failed to win.
This edition of Punt to Win:
How useful are horse racing form lines?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Moonee Valley Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/8/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights
reserved.
|