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Punt to Win |
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19/7/2002 edition Early Cox Plate Betting Lonhro has firmed from $10 to $6 to win the Cox Plate after a bet of $100,000 to $11,000 was laid on the John Hawkes trained Octagonal colt to win the race. We might be missing something here, but that seems to show a pretty thin betting market. It must be if all it takes is an $11,000 bet on a horse for the price to come crashing in from $10 to $6. That $11,000 bet is also what we call the "wealthy mug money". It's the equivalent of your average punter having a $20 bet - pretty irrelevant. Why "wealthy mug money"? Who else would take shortish odds about a horse winning a race more than three months into the future when some of the following variables are not known? 1. Track conditions. A lot can go wrong in over three months with a horse. If Lonhro doesn't run then the bet is lost. There also seems to be something out of place with the Cox Plate markets we're seeing:
You see, these prices total 78.81%. Do we know with anywhere near an 80% degree of certainty that the winner will be one of those six horses, let alone that all of them will start? We don't think so. These pre price markets three months before the race are loaded against punters. With another four horses around $16.00 (6.25%), Don Eduardo, Grandera, Republic Lass and Victory Vein, we already have a market of over 103%. Then throw in prices for another 50 horses and you get the picture - it's probably best to leave this form of betting alone. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites
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