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19/3/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 26th. February, 2011.

On this day the $1,000,000 2YO Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes and the $400,000 Group 1 Oakleigh Plate were held at Caulfield. The Blue Diamond was won by the Peter Snowden trained colt, Sepoy, ridden by Kerrin McEvoy. Sepoy started at $1.40 with the bookies, being backed in from $1.60 on track and paid best tote odds of $1.40. The Oakleigh Plate was won by the David Hayes trained 5YO gelding, Eagle Falls, ridden by Damien Oliver. Eagle Falls started at $21.00 with the bookies and paid best tote odds of $23.10.

Caulfield: Blue Diamond Stakes Day - Track Good.

R2 $100,000 Listed. Quality Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Vesper
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Telesmon
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Quality Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Moshe
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.95
Jockey: Josh Adams
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Winner: Decision Time
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Clarry Conners

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing trifecta betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Class Runner horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/2/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
 Punt to Win 26/2/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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