19/3/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, March 13.

Canterbury: Track Good
R1 $140,000 2YO C & G. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Dance Hero
Result: first
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $50,000 4YO and upward. Transition. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Run Just Run
Result: sixth
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.20
Jockey: Mitchell Bell
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Winner: Words Of Magic
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Tim Martin

R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Seances
Result: third
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctation: $2.45
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Magsaya
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Policia
Result: first
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Robert Faehr
Trainer: Jack Smith
Equal Favourite: Subella
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $2.80
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Stuart Gower

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: On A Jeune
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctation: $3.10
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: Peter Montgomerie
Winner: Pentirely
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Are betting exchanges doomed in Australia?
Night horse racing - should you bet on it?
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Canterbury, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/3/2004
Punt to Win index

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