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Everyone "Knows Will Win "

We repeatedly stress on this site that to win long term at racing you must have an angle that is different from the "public". If you bet like everyone else, take the same odds as everyone else, then you will get their results, which is a long term loss.

As an example of this every few years we think it's worth having another look at what happened when everyone "knew" John Hawkes was going to win plenty of races in Melbourne because John Hawkes was going to make sure he won the 2002 Race Horse Trainers' Premiership.

John Hawkes Will Win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership
Everyone "knew" that John Hawkes, eager to win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership, was bringing down good horses from Sydney in July to complement his Melbourne team of horses.

Have a look at the table below. It shows how the 25 John Hawkes' trained horses performed in July on Saturdays in Melbourne - the horses that everyone "knew" were primed for big races to help John Hawkes win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership.

Flemington 5/7/2002
Horse	Dollar Starting Price Odds	Finish
Domine	6.00	6/15
Gramercy	3.50	7/13
Victorix	10.00	4/13
Naareda	10.00	3/13
Lilindeeana	10.00	7/14
Moonee Valley 12/7/2002
Horse	Dollar Starting Price Odds	Finish
Tito	3.00	4/13
Hollow	13.00	8/13
Gradual	3.20	7/12
Kepero	7.00	4/13
Tweak	9.00	7/13
Old Man	8.00	4/12
Caulfield 19/7/2002
Horse	Dollar Starting Price Odds	Finish
Lambeth	8.00	6/11
Volley	17.00	10/11
Palais	3.50	4/7
Gramercy	11.00	4/15
Malo	8.00	8/15
Sports	13.00	9/11
Philotimo	6.50	6/9
Boreale	2.35	2/13
Orthopaedic	12.00	12/15
Moonee Valley 26/7/2002
Horse	Dollar Starting Price Odds	Finish
Snick	4.00	3/7
Gironde	21.00	5/13
Boreale	3.50	9/13
Old Man	4.60	5/8
Victorix	5.00	10/15

What an absolute disaster. 25 runners - not one winner. Many were favourites. Most were kept very safe in the betting. There were eight horses that started under $5.00. Because punters "knew" the horses were set to win, because punters "knew" John Hawkes was determined to win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership, you can bet that his horses would most likely be well under the odds on the tote and with the bookies.

That's the way horse racing betting operates.

As we repeatedly stress on this site, what everyone "knows" in horse racing is guaranteed to provide you with ways of losing betting money long term, nothing else. It can be no different, because betting on racing is a negative sums game which consistently returns less money to punters than is outlaid in bets."
Based on Punt to Win, 2nd. August, 2002.

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