18/7/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 27th. June, 2009.

Flemington
Track: R1-2 Dead, R3-8 Good.
Rail: Out 10 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.65

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Toluka
Days since last start: 32
Distance last start: 1112
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Italian Machine
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R3 $75,000 Rst95. Handicap.
Distance: 1620 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Starkron
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R4 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1720 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: At The Crease
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Red Buttons
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Michael Kent

R6 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Stickpin
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 5-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R7 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Swift Bay
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Ross McDonald

R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Grand Duels
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 16-22
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

Comments:
In R1 Toluka didn't appreciate the 32 days between races and finished 10th. In R8 yet another plunge on a horse first up after a long spell of 100 days or more went astray. Grand Duels was heavily backed from $4.00 to $3.20 but was comfortable held in 3rd. In R4 the favourite At The Crease unsuccessfully jumped in distance from 1400 metres to 1720 metres. In addition it finished 4th. at its previous start. However this week two favourites won after being unplaced at their previous starts - in R3 and R7.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering on Heavy tracks
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/6/2009
The Consistency and Fitness horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/7/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/7/2009 & 27/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/6/2009
Punt to Win index

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