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18/7/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 4th. July, 2009.
Flemington
Track: Dead
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 4.7
R1 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Bluzar
Days since last start: 25
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Marc Conners
R2 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Ballerina Girl
Days since last start: 31
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R3 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Chameleon
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R4 $100,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: No Jurisdiction
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R5 $150,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Spare A Dime
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy
R6 $200,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Davcon
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Heath Conners
R7 $150,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Gran Sasso
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith
R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Pacino
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Clinton McDonald
Comments:
The two winning favourites, in R7 and R8, both won their previous starts seven days earlier. In R1 and R2 the favourites started after breaks of 25 days and 31 days respectively, and both ran unplaced. Leading jockey Michael Rodd rode three favourites that failed to win, in R3, R4 and R6.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering on Heavy tracks
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/6/2009
The Consistency and Fitness horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/7/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/7/2009 & 27/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/6/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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