Northerly odds on - forget it

Northerly has started short odds on at his last five starts. He won the Australian Cup starting at $1.70. His other four races he started at $1.30, $1.40, $1.75 and $1.45 last Saturday at Rosehill. He lost the lot of them.

You could say backers of Northerly have been wiped out recently. But there's no need to feel sorry for Northerly's connections from the owners to the trainers to the jockey Patrick Payne. They have all made good money from Northerly while the punters have lost money betting Northerly.

Last Saturday Northerly's connections collected a cool $400,000 for finishing second as $1.45 favourite while punters who backed Northerly were left licking their wounds.

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Tote punters, don't be loyal

Last Saturday the Victorian horse Toast Of the Coast won the first race at Roshill. Punters on the Victorian tote were "rewarded" for their loyalty with a tote dividend of $6.10. The filly paid $7.10 on the New South Wales tote and $8.10 on the combined Queensland and South Australian totes - Unitab.

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Sydney Carnival Racing - it's a betting trap

If you're serious about winning at the races you'll tread very carefully when the heavily promoted Carnivals are on. Generally most races are very poor betting races. The fields are big and the depth is huge. That also does not mean value.

In your normal 14 horse race you might find the top three horses between them have about a 60% chance of winning, another three have about 30%, another three have about 6% and the remaining five between them have about 4% chance of winning.

Not so your normal 14 horse Carnival race. The top three horses might have about 40% chance of winning, the next seven 40% and the remaining four horses between them have about 20% chance of winning.

What that means is just about any horse can win. It also means just about any horse is a realistic show for finishing second, third or fourth. It turns the betting into a raffle and just about anything can come home and wreck your win, trifecta, first four and place bets.