18/4/2003 edition

TAB Limited's "Spinner" Bet

Continued from previous page

We wanted to find out how much of the Spinner betting pool was returned to the bettors, so we clicked the link "Spinner Specifics".

We thought the question "How are prices calculated?" would provide the answer. But all we were told was that:

"Just like other TAB products, the price for each outcome is calculated by the amount of money invested on that outcome. As a result, the final price for each outcome is not known until betting for the race has closed." We didn't find any mention of the TAB Ltd. takeout.

So we checked the dividends for the four metropolitan meetings from Saturday, 12th. April, a total of 33 Spinner races.

Here are the results for placing a $1 bet in every race on:

Odds - eight wins from 33
Outlay $33, return $20.40, loss $12.60, loss on turnover 38.18%

Evens - six wins from 33
Outlay $33, return $19.30, loss $13.70, loss on turnover 45.51%

Mixed - 19 wins from 33
Outlay $33, return $33.30, profit 30 cents, profit on turnover 0.91%

What has happened is that the terrible losses from players on "Odds" and "Evens" has subsidised a miniscule profit on "Mixed" which required a 58% winning strike rate to make 30 cents. That of course will even out so that all three betting combinations show substantial losses on turnover.

Maybe a better picture can be given by assuming a $1 bet on "Odds", "Evens" and "Mixed" in each race. That shows:

Outlay $99, return $73.00, loss $26.00, loss on turnover 26.26%. Most likely the TAB takeout is around 20%+ of the pool.

Because there are only three possible winners in any race, "odds", "evens" and "mixed", you will find it very difficult to ever get over the odds on any collect to overcome the tote take from the pool. As you appear to get big unders with your collects, that means there is no method of staking Spinner that will turn it into a long term profitable betting game.

If you like playing a simple numbers game such as roulette when you visit your local casino, then we suggest you do not play Spinner as an alternative. With roulette, the house only keeps about 3%, not about 20%. They also don't round down your payouts.

This edition of Punt to Win:
TAB Limited's " Spinner" bet
Why Spinner is a terrible bet
Betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/4/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

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