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18/2/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, February 12.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO Fillies. Class 6. Handicap.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: But I'm Serious
Result: third
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Bob Haire
Winner: Ponte Piccolo
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $55,000 Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Art Official
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Robert Price
Winner: Grandly
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Payne

R3 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Pentelikon
Result: seventh
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Shalimar Sky
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Guy Walter

R6 $150,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Grand Armee
Result: first
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Equal Favourite: Our Egyptian Raine
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Grahame Begg


Doomben: Track Good

R1 $25,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.

Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Foolish
Result: first
Starting price: $1.24
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Glenn Lynch
Trainer: Mark F Webb

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield - track bias, Blue Diamond betting upset
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Randwick and Caulfield
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/2/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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