18/1/2002 edition

Beating the Odds

Play Station - huge win

What a massive win by this five year old gelding in the 1400 metres Listed Gold Coast Stakes last Saturday.

1. Play Station started from barrier 10.

2. He had top weight of 59kg. That was a two kilos increase from his win only seven days earlier.

3. Play Station was dropping back in distance from 1615 metres, always hard to do.

4. He generally settles well back in the field. The Gold Coast track tends to favour on pace runners.

5. Play Station was well back wide in the run, and had to fan out seven wide on the home turn, covering even more ground.

Considering all that you would want some pretty decent odds. But Play Station only started at $6.00. SuperTab punters only got $5.10.

Betting on horse racing is a negative sums game. That means less money is returned to punters than is bet. Winning long term at racing is about beating those odds. It is not possible to do so if short odds are taken about horses who have to put in a phenomenal performance, like Play Station, to win the race.

You either take on those horses or leave those races alone.

One thing you do not do is try and pick (guess?) which "good things" carrying the grandstand and starting from a poor barrier will win the race. What separates Play Station from another 10 similar bets that will look just as good but all lose?

Scott Seamer - "hot" jockey

Needless to say Play Station was ridden by outstanding Queensland jockey Scott Seamer, who has been having a phenomenal run since winning the 20001 Melbourne Cup on Ethereal.

You are often told in the racing media to follow a jockey or a stable that is "hot". It is another simplistic way to win which does not work.

1. You can only know that a stable or jockey is "hot" after the event. The winners have already been bagged.

2. Statistics show that if you back every horse a jockey rides you must lose money.

3. Once the punting public decides a jockey is "hot" the price of many horses ridden by the jockey tends to shorten. Value is even further reduced.

4. Leading hoop Damien Oliver is regarded as permanently "hot". Many of his mounts have that factored into the price on offer. When Oliver was put on Rebel With A Cause last Saturday following the very unfortunate, serious injury to jockey Alan Cowie, the five year old grey gelding was sent out at much shorter odds. $1.80 odds on!

Rebel With A Cause settled well back in the nine horse field, went seven wide around the home turn to make his run and finished nicely for fourth, beaten by two lengths. But he never once looked a winning chance - not want you want from an odds on favourite.

Next pages
Gai Waterhouse - "unstoppable"
Magic Millions betting markets
Money talks
Future winners at big odds
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Short Priced Tote Favourites
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