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17/12/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 10th. December, 2011.

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 76. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Barbados
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Bello
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Happy Hussy
 Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Embark
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.60
Jockey: Josh Adams
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Flemington: Track R1 Dead, R2 - R8 Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Donna Cattiva
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Sell In May
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
Late scratching: Deductions in $ Win 21c.
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: John Sadler

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1610 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Blue Ribbon
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Trainer: Colin Little
Winner: Let's Be Happy
Starting price: $9.50
Top fluctuation: $9.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Mick Clark

R4 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1720 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Magic Me
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
Winner: Token Of Honour
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Hayes

Doomben: Track R1 - R5 Heavy, R6 - R8 Slow.

R5 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Alltherightmoves
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $180
Jockey: Brad Stewart
Trainer: Les Kelly

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 3rd. December, 2011.

Rosehill: Track Dead R1, Good R3-R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lyric
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Fundido
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 71. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Dynamic Honour
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing betting markets and betting odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Bunched Finish horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/12/2011 & 3/12//2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/11/2011 & 19/11/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
 Punt to Win 19/11/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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