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17/11/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 10th. November.

Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Viking Turf Belle
Result: first

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Mandy Radecker
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: The Chunkster
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly

R3 $20,000 Rst. 0 - 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Soloist
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Dominic Tourneur
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Steel My Heart
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.00
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Roslyn Day

R4 $20,000 Colts, Horses & Geldings. Rst. 0 - 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Who'sthis
Result: second
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Mandy Radecker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Redadan
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.80
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Mark Minervini

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing track specialists
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Hayes, Hawkes, Waterhouse horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/11/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/11/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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