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17/9/2005
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
Here are the results from Saturday, 10th. September.
Victoria Park: Track Good
R1 $18,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Crowned Serdar
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Adrian Garraway
Trainer: Joe Lockyer
Winner: Manzeal
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Jamie Evans
Trainer: Robbie Laing
R3 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Fraaclase
Result: second
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Holly McKechnie
Trainer: Sam Turner
Winner: Spectrogram
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $29.70
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
This edition of Punt to Win:
Trifecta betting tips
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/9/2005
Punt to Win index
Here are the results from Saturday, 3rd. September.
Randwick: Track Good
R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: High Cee
Result: first
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Bart Cummings
R4 $130,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Stratum
Result: equal second
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Paul Perry
Winner: Denamrket
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Doomben: Track Good
R4 $40,000 Colts, Horses & Geldings. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Star Of Canada
Result: first
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Alan Bailey
R6 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1630 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lachlan River
Result: first
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: John Morrisey
Morphettville: Track Dead
R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Strikes Back
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
Jockey: Briony Dunn
Trainer: Ricky Moore
Winner: Blahnik
Starting price: $20.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $18.50
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
R2 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2024 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Dakasha
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Daneforce
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Jeremy Gask
R4 $20,000 Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Skandia
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $4.50
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Colin Chandler
Winner: Molokai's Ladd
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Betting
packages
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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