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17/9/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, September 11.

Rosehill: Track Dead
R5 $200,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Private Steer
Result: third
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Falkirk
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John O'Shea

Moonee Valley: Track Heavy
R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Hollow Bullet
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: John McArdle
Winner: Emlozza
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R3 $75,000 3YO. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Oratorio
Result: first
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Victoria Park: Track Heavy
R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Niconero
Result: first
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Best tote: 95% to 98% of pools returned to punters
Get those betting odds
Longshot horse racing betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/9/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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