17/5/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting. There were no races with fields of seven or less horses on Saturday, 10th. May.

Here are the results from Saturday, 3rd. May, which was Sydney Cup Day at Randwick.

Moonee Valley: Track Slow

R1 $54,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1514 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Astro Gains
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Peter Moody
Equal Favourite: The Moon Day
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Andrew Noblet
Winner: Mio Roiale
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.30
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $54,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Red Element
Result: first
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: David Hayes
Equal Favourite: Dabble
Result: third
Starting price: $4.80
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R3 $54,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1514 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: The Gem
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Sebastian Murphy
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R7 $54,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1514 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Saliente
Result: first
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Trainer: Karen Fox

Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $22,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Private Liaison
Result: third
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Lapel
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R3 $34,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Reshuffles
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: El Maze
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Turning horse racing losses into profits by staking
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Free Horse Racing Ratings betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/5/2008 and 3/5/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/4/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 10/5/2008 and 3/5/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 26/4/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/4/2008
Punt to Win index

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