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Punt to Win |
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16/8/2014 edition Understanding Horse Racing Markets and Betting Odds Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter for: Here is an interesting story about what we heard a race caller say some time ago as the horses were going into the barriers: Here are the top three top tote horses, they are "some of the chances" and then noting that one of them had one win from 27 races concluded with the comical: "Then you've got the rest of them really struggling. So I think this is a struggle race for everybody here." The race caller then added, commenting on the betting ring action at the track: "This is a funny race. They really haven't really had a crack at anything. I think most agree this is probably one of the hardest races of the day..." What the race caller forgot to mention was the bookmaker betting market odds. The starting price market was 131%. That is equivalent to being offered $1.53 about the toss of a coin! How would anyone like a total return, including your dollar, of $1.53 for guessing correctly heads or tails on the toss of a coin? That's what the horse racing betting ring market odds were equivalent to. No wonder "They really haven't really had a crack at anything." Of course, because the true winning chances for horses are a matter of opinion, no matter what sort of data you want to feed into your ratings software for the race, and not an obvious statistical fact like 50% for heads or tails, there is the possibility the bookies could get a horse's odds wrong. But in horse racing markets of 130%+ there's not much chance of that. A betting market of 133% is equal to odds of $1.50 about the toss of a coin. This edition of Punt to Win: On Saturday, 23rd. November, our tipster gave followers Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!! Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter for: 2013 Melbourne Cup Day
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