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16/8/2002 edition

Fields Of Omagh is Back
Massive Win

Fields Of Omagh hadn't raced since winning the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes over 2119 metres at Sandown on November 24 last year. The classy 5YO gelding returned to racing after injury in style at Flemington last Sunday.

Fields Of Omagh, ridden by Greg Childs, and carrying 58.5kg comfortably won the $100,000 Handicap, starting at $12.00. Childs described the win as a "sensational run" and rated Fields Of Omagh a "definite Cups class" horse.

That was Fields Of Omagh's seventh win in a row, and eighth win from 14 starts.

Winners keep on winning, often at good odds, as punters avoid them because "they are due for a loss." Losing low strike rate horses continue to lose and many are sent out at short odds and false favourites.

We had a quick look at how horses with a 40% winning strike rate went at Randwick last Saturday (minimum of four wins needed.)

Randwick
Horse
Starts
Wins
Win %
Finish
SP
Native Jazz
17
7
41
2
7.00
The Ark
14
6
43
8
7.00
Strictly Smart
10
5
50
4
41.00
Calaway Gal
8
5
62
7
3.00
Time Out
10
4
40
2
4.80
Words Of Magic
11
6
55
6
3.60
Jivago
9
5
56
14
61.00
Into The Night
7
4
57
1
8.00
Agile
9
4
44
9
7.00
Plain Crazy
16
7
44
1
7.00
Freestyler
12
5
42
6
18.00

These results, while clearly not a statistically valid sample, are very interesting. It may well pay to seriously consider betting high strike rate horses at good odds. Also for system followers probably a quite simple selection system betting method can be developed.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Fields Of Omagh - high strike rate winner
Cox Plate all in betting
Carnival horses - betting odds, betting odds
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Place betting staking plan
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Sandown plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/8/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses are losing bets.

Horse

Get these tote prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Pristine Partners
7.20 12.00 77% $480
Brave Chief
5.00 7.50 63% $250
La Serenade
6.70 8.00 23% $130

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