16/7/2005 edition

The Truth:
Why All Horses Often Ease in the Betting

Let's have a look at some "information from the track" punters have regularly received for years from the racing media. Consider a city meeting. The second race of the day is being held. It is a 2YO Open over 1000 metres. The track is also very heavy track.

It will be no surprise if the "information from the track" given to you by the racing media tipster is that all horses have been a little bit easy as "punters are trying to sum up the track."

If you check the odds you will see that is correct. Sure - all the horses have eased. But did that have anything to do with punters trying to work out what the track was going to do?

When you look a little further it will be no surprise to see that the opening market was 145% - or even higher. Now it's a simple mathematical fact that it's pretty hard to get value in a market like that.

To a put a market of 145% into perspective consider roulette in an Australian casino where there is one zero.

With a market of 145%:

Instead of being paid even money ($2.00) for correctly selecting a red or black number you are only paid 2/5 ($1.40).

Instead of being paid 2/1 ($3.00) for correctly selecting a number in the group 13 to 24 you are only paid 10/9 ($2.10).

Instead of being paid 35/1 ($36.00) for correctly selecting one number you are only paid 23/1 ($24).

Now you see what a horse racing betting market of 145% is.
Most likely any bet is a long term losing bet.

It's a pity the racing media don't tell you that.

That will also explain why horses ease in the betting. It is simply that none of them offer any value to tempt any worthwhile betting money.

Heavy tracks - be wary

You are asking for trouble regularly taking very short odds about horses on Heavy tracks, particularly when they are two year olds resuming from a spell.

For example, a two year old could resume from a spell of five months at the short odds of $2.00 on a very heavy track.

It might have a convincing win on a Slow track. But that does not mean the horse will handle a Heavy track, particularly if the track is very Heavy.

It will be no surprise to see that two year old get bogged down and be beaten by 20 lengths. It's happened plenty of times in the past.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The truth: Why all horses often ease in the betting
Heavy tracks - be wary
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Flemington
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/7/2005
Punt to Win index

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