16/7/2004 edition

Find Those Winning Longshots

Continued from previous page

"Flemington, November 4
3YO Group 1. Victoria Derby. 2500 metres.
Hit The Roof who won at $15.30 was way over the odds. He had two wins from two starts at the track. At his previous start on October 21 in the Group 2 Norman Robinson Stakes at Caulfield over 2000 metres he finished very strongly, missing out by a head. He also had an outstanding jockey in Glenn Boss and for an on pace horse drew perfectly with barrier two. 

Morphettville, November 4
4YO and upwards handicap. Restricted to no metropolitan wins. 1600 metres.
Star Of Spies, a lightly raced seven year old with only 16 starts won this very weak race at $21.80. Why was he at those odds? In March last year he started at only $8.00 and stormed home to be just beaten in a photo finish at Cheltenham over 1450 metres in a better class event, a handicap restricted to one metropolitan win! There was nothing wrong with his form since that race either. He was certainly fit with five runs in from a spell and at his previous start had only been beaten a couple of lengths by a handy horse in Marron Cheval who also ran in this race and finished second starting at $3.50! Star Of Spies had placed at his only start at Morphettville and also had a win and a placing from three starts at the distance.   

Rosehill, December 2
Welter handicap. 2000 metres. 
Zanetta won this race at $25.50. Talk about markets getting it completely wrong. We top rated Zanetta. This five year old mare trained by Gai Waterhouse had top form on rain affected tracks with four wins and three placings from 11 starts. Rosehill was rated Slow and upgraded to Dead halfway through the meeting. She also had one win from one start at the distance. That was a welter at the same track, Rosehill, on November 27 last year on a Good rated surface, not her favourite conditions! She also won the Group 3 Summer Cup at Randwick on December 26 last year defeating classy performer Pasta Express.

So how could she be $25.50?
Maybe because she was second up. But her second up record was fine - a win and two placings from three starts! There was nothing special about her first up run over 1400 metres in a strong $61,000 Open during the Hawkesbury Cup Carnival on November 22 but she has never performed first up and she was now dropping down in class. 

Was there concern about her jumping from 1400 metres to 2000 metres second up? If you follow trainers carefully you would have no concerns about Gai Waterhouse running Zanetta over the 2000 metres second up. 

Was there a worry about her coming up again? For on the surface, during the autumn, after a two and a half months break she ran four ordinary races, never finishing closer than seventh. These included  being beaten by four lengths in a $100,000 Mares quality over 1900 metres at Canterbury, after being heavily  supported  in the betting ring from $3.80 to $3.00. But she was laboured with 58 kilos. She either had very poor barriers or a lot of weight in those races. 

Well. There you have it. For punters doing their own form the clues were all there.
All you had to do was unravel them." 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning longshot betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Flemington, Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/7/2004
Punt to Win index

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