16/7/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, July 10.

Randwick Inner: Track Slow
R1 $45,000 3YO and upward Fillies and Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lil Elsa
Result: seventh
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Paul Sutherland
Winner: Zinzin
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Kevin Moses

R2 $45,000 3YO. Sc1. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bit Of Knowledge
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Winner: Imperialism
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $45,000 2YO. Open. Handicap..
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Peel
Result: equal second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Beatitude
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: John Hawkes

R5 $45,000 3YO and upward Fillies and Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Lilly O'Reilly
Result: first
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning longshot betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Flemington, Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/7/2004
Punt to Win index

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