16/7/2004 edition

Winning Longshot Betting Tips

Here is an informative article which gives you betting tips on how to find those winning longshots. We first published it on December 8, 2000 - a time when we were getting insignificant traffic to this website compared with now.

"How often do punters immediately go for their form guides when a horse wins at incredibly juicy odds to look for clues? Sometimes the answer is found, more often it remains a mystery. Punters also tend to only concentrate on the main horses in the betting market, dismissing the others - "They can't win". 

I will look at just six of the many horses which have won recently at $11.00 or better. You will see from what emerges that there was every reason to expect the horses to run bold races. They should all have been at much shorter odds. If punters spend the time to look at horses like these in a positive light, asking "What are they capable of doing?" then they may well back big winners in the future instead of putting their money on the short priced tote favourites or those flashing "tote firmers".

Eagle Farm, October 21
Open handicap. 1400 metres.
Glint Of Heart won at $58.90. The six year old had 11 wins from 45 starts, a handy strike rate. He also handled the track with one win and two placings from six starts and the distance with a win and placing from four starts. He was also race fit and in form, having run a close third behind Huge Year and Anthems 10 days earlier, his fourth run in from a two months break. In the 10 horse field he was certainly not hopeless. 

Doomben, October 28
Fillies and Mares Class 6 handicap. 1200 metres.
Sunset won first up from a spell at $23.60. She had a good strike rate with three wins and three placings from 11 starts. Her only start at Doomben was a second. She also had one win from two first up runs. In her last preparation she was unlucky not to win a Fillies and Mares Open, but did win a quality three year old event, the Sunshine Coast Guineas over 1600 metres. She had a leading trainer in Alan Bailey who produces first up winners and top jockey Glen Colless was aboard. Down in class in a restricted mares race Sunset was way over the odds.

Moonee Valley, October 28
Open handicap. 1200 metres. 
The Shiner won at $17.40.  On August 19 after a four weeks freshen up he was beaten by a bob of the head at Moonee Valley starting at $16.00. On September 30 over a less suitable distance, 1000 metres at Moonee Valley, he was only beaten by a couple of lengths after being checked at the start. He was then freshened up for his October 28 run. The field was no stronger and he was racing at his favourite distance. He had an excellent winning strike rate of nine wins from 38 starts, however importantly he had seven wins and seven placings from 21 starts at 1200 metres. Also importantly he liked Moonee Valley with three wins and five placings from 12 starts at the track. For a horse who races right on the speed he had drawn well with barrier three. He also had his regular jockey in Kerrin McEvoy. When you consider all this he does not appear so difficult to find!"
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning longshot betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Flemington, Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/7/2004
Punt to Win index

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