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16/5/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 2nd. May, 2009.
Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: Out 7 metres
Penetrometer: 5.17
R1 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sugar Babe
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 4-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Bashful Girl
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith
R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Driffield Gold
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R4 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Black Caviar
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Cocinero
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths
R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Ego's Dare
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-14
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
R7 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Royal Striker
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Trainer: Bart Cummings
R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Royal Charades
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Mick Price
Comments:
What stands out is the two favourites that failed to run a place at their previous start, Sugar Babe in R1 and Ego's Dare in R6, both again failed to run a place. There was an good training feat in R8, with Royal Charades appreciating the break of five weeks between runs.
This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find winning horse racing bets at huge odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/4/2009
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/5/2009 and 2/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Sydney Cup Day - 25/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/4/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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